Presidential election in Guatemala still tight

26Oct11

By Vanessa Haces-Gonzatti

Things could get messy in Guatemala if presidential election’s results are too close, according to Eduardo Stein, former Vice President. Stein spoke at a meeting of the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C. about the second round of the race for the presidential office in Guatemala.

The two remaining contenders are former general Otto Perez Molina, of the right-winged Patriot Party, and Manuel Baldizon, of the centrist LIDER party.

Stein said that the weakness of the Guatemalan Electoral Tribunal has to be taken into account when analyzing the outcome, whichever one it may be.

“If the election is close, I don’t think the population will accept it easily”, Stein said. “Guatemalans have identified members of the Electoral Tribunal as representatives of political parties, that’s what they’re up against.”

As the November 6^th runoff approaches, polls show very close percentages between Otto Perez Molina and Manuel Baldizon.

Perez Molina leads the latest polls, published by Prodatos, with 55.8 percent approval, while Manuel Baldizon has 44.2 percent of voter intent. In the first round, Perez Molina obtained 36 percent of the vote and Baldizon got 23 percent.

The survey had a 2.8 percent margin of error, which would still give Perez Molina a comfortable lead. However, polls also show that his approval has been slowly decreasing since June, whereas Baldizon’s has been slowly increasing.

In order for these numbers to make sense in context, it must be taken into consideration that Perez Molina had 50.6 percent of approval in June and Baldizon had 5.6 percent in May.

Security and money are paramount

The former Vice President –who held the position from 2004 to 2008- said what will most likely determine the election results is how the population considers each one will deal with the two main issues that worry Guatemalans: security and economics issues.

“[Security] is the prominent issue for Guatemalan voters, who could solve the insecurity problems of the country,” said Stein. “But it’s being a much more complex issue, it has also to do with income opportunities, job opportunities, and in general, and in general the situation of the economy which is the second.”

He said that even though Perez Molina defends the “mano dura” approach on security issues, this is not necessarily a bad thing.

The “mano dura” policy is known to restrict civil liberties as an attempt of the military to control crime and drug cartels.

 

Stein said that this policy could also be a way to strengthen democracy through the justice system and the law enforcement forces.

Including half the country

Stein also mentioned the indigenous population in Guatemala, which makes up about 50 percent of the nation.

According to the United Nations there are 21 different Maya groups in Guatemala, which make up an estimated of 51 percent of the national population.

He noted that they are as divided among themselves as the non-indigenous population, which makes Guatemala a complicated country to analyze when it comes to elections.

Stein said that, ironically, the Patriot Party –considered as a highly conservative one- presented the most amount of indigenous candidates in the last election.

 

What’s on the table for the next president?

Stein said that even though he cannot predict election results, whoever gets elected would have to deal with budget and foreign policy issues.

However, he said he has seen consistency in Otto Perez Molina’s promises regarding indigenous reforms and the foreign policy agenda; whereas Manuel Baldizon would probably not be able to uphold his promises due to the budget situation in Guatemala.

“There is 3 percent deficit in the public budget and the foreign debt increased by 30 percent, which amounts to 4.5 billion dollars,” said Stein. “It grew to levels never expected of experienced before.”

“There is always an element of hope that is not reasonable,” said Stein. According to him, people need to believe that someone will change things.

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